Lotsa Luck. They'll need it.



"Jinx. Cover Jinx. DOUBLE JINX.
BOOGA BOOGA BOOGA!"

[You need to say that as you stretch out your arms and wiggle your fingers at this mag everytime you see it in newsstands. ]

The two games last week -- Stanford at Notre Dame and Oregon at Arizona State--might have offered some clues as to the kind of success Oregon and Stanford will have this week when they face each other. I think ASU helped Oregon far more than Notre Dame prepared Stanford for this matchup.

The Irish are terrible. All that talk about their switching to a no-huddle spread option? It's pure fantasy. What they thought was hurry-up was their QB standing and staring at the sideline for 30 seconds before calling the play at the line. By the fourth quarter they had completely abandoned it.

What's more, their spread option just doesn't have the personnel to make it work. The Irish players simply do not appear to know what they're supposed to be doing. The blocking was terrible. The running backs looked confused. And Notre Dame mostly passed anyway.

An article from the SF Chronicle said:
Stanford's defense limited the Irish (1-3) to 44 yards rushing and harassed Crist with a strong pass rush and multiple looks in the secondary.
To be more accurate, the Irish limited the Irish to 44 yards rushing, and that made the pass rush easy.

It is because of this that Notre Dame gave Stanford no insight in preparing for Oregon.

Oregon was fortunate, not to have just won that game, but to have faced a Pac-10 team with a very good quarterback and a tough defense before they play Stanford. ASU literally threw everything they had at the Ducks and almost pulled out the win. The toughness and accuracy of Sun Devil QB Steven Threet was better than advertised. He should've reminded the Ducks of Stanford's Andrew Luck.

An Oregonian story by Ken Goe titled, "Ducks say they're ready for Andrew Luck and Stanford's thunderous running game.", talks of Stanford's huge veteran offensive line, and how they like to use two tight ends for either blocking or play action. This is all true, but in that game against Notre Dame, there was something definitely missing from their thunder. Toby Gerhart.

The Cardinal ran a whopping 254 yards against a highly ranked Oregon team last season on their way to a 51 to 42 victory. Last week against lackluster Notre Dame? Stanford rushed for only 166 yards. The rest of it came from Luck's arm. Stanford brags they have a stable of running backs. The truth is, they're rotating them because no single RB this season could hold Gerhart's jock strap.

Last week, Stanford mostly passed. After looking at the Oregon/ASU game film, you can bet they'll pass a lot more this Saturday. In this excerpt from Goe's article, we see what I believe will be the story of the game -- stopping Luck's passing.

Stanford's running game is a beast, but only half the problem.


Luck is completing 62.7 percent of his passes, has thrown 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.

“He can make all the right throws, and he is a smart player,” UO cornerback Anthony Gildon said. “And, he can run. He can basically do it all.”

The Cardinal uses a lot of two-tight end sets, often leaving one in pass protection. That allows Luck more time to wait for longer patterns to develop, which puts more pressure on the defensive backs in coverage.

The Ducks could make it a little tougher on him by shutting off the ground game, forcing Luck to throw on their terms, and then keeping Stanford’s quarterback guessing when he drops to throw.

“We’re going to have to disguise and try to confuse him a little bit back there,” Gildon said.

It will be a tough task. Stanford is all over the national statistical leaders’ list.

Luck is 11th in passing efficiency, Stanford is fourth in scoring offense, 19th in rushing offense and 24th in total offense.

Oregon is better in those three team categories – first in scoring offense, third in rushing offense and third in total offense – but UO defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti would rather not see this turn into another shootout.

Last year’s game was a defensive game-planner’s nightmare.

“If we read our keys, if we line up correctly, if we don’t let our eyes deceive us and we give unbelievable effort and strain, then I think things will be OK,” Aliotti said. “Unbelievable effort and strain. That’s the stat I think we need to lead in.”

Stuffing Stanford’s mashball running game would be helpful too.

This time, the Ducks think they will.

“We’ll handle whatever comes our way,” Bair said. “Seven offensive linemen, five, two – I don’t care what they put up there. We’ll get ready for it, and we’ll handle it.”

Key to game: Get Lucky

Stopping Stanford's running game will not be as difficult as last year. Compared to Gerhart, their running backs this year are mortal and manageable. That will force Luck to change up plays and throw.

And that puts him in a bad position. What position is that, you ask?

Why Autzen, of course.

 
 
 
Quotable: You know it's Stanford week when gamesmanship starts to get all literary.


Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh was asked Tuesday if he had expected his team to be as dominant (outscoring opponents 48-14) as it has been. He then quoted Ralph Waldo Emerson:

"I hate to be defended in a newspaper. As long as all that is said is said against me, I feel a certain sublime assurance of success, but as soon as honied words of praise are spoken for me, I feel as one that lies unprotected before his enemies.''

Not at a loss for honied words himself, Kelly busted out a Winston Churchill line in his press conference when asked about his team's relatively sloppy play coming in a victory, the 42-31 win at Arizona State on Saturday.

"The problems of victory are more agreeable than the problems of defeat, but they are no less difficult.''

OK those are pretty good quotes. But if you're looking for words of wisdom that are much more relevant to Saturdays matchup in Eugene, well there's really only one person to turn to . . . .


Game time is 5pm Pacific on ABC, except for the East Coast. "The Situation" and others in New Jersey will need to tune into ESPN2, Non HD.

Also, let's not forget College Gameday in Eugene at 7am on ESPN.