Duck D's Success will Decide Winner, as Luck Would Have It.

Last year at Autzen, Stanford led 21-3 in the first quarter.
Oregon roared back to win 52-31.

Stanford or Oregon. Oregon or Stanford. We may not have known it at the time, but these two teams have been preparing for this game since the final buzzer of their match last year. Who will win? Odds makers have Stanford by 3-1/2. But that's little more than a home field spread. It's like picking the horse who has run more on grass.

What does Stanford have going for it?
1) Lotsa' Luck. Andrew, that is. Clearly the best Stanford QB since John Elway. Probably the best Pac-10/12 QB since . . . . well, John Elway. He's won because he's big, talented, smart, and he hates to lose.

2) The talent around Luck. I thought Luck was crazy for coming back his senior year. I didn't think he had a decent supporting cast. Turns out he does, starting with his offensive line. Two All Americans anchor his line, allowing him time to check off his options and engineer drives to perfection.

3) Home field @ The Farm vs. Autzen. Night and day.

What does Stanford have going against it?
1) Injuries. An alarming number of those talented players supporting Luck won't be playing tomorrow evening. Wide receiver Chris Owusu is out with three concussions. Tight end Zach Ertz is doubtful with a knee injury. Offensive tackle Cameron Fleming is questionable.

2) Not well tested. While Oregon was growing up against LSU, Stanford was feeling invincible as they clobbered San Jose State. Their win against USC could just as easily have been a loss as they allowed the Trojans to score 48 points through three overtimes. In their win over Oregon State, I saw a very beatable Cardinal. If the Beavs had just a few more play makers and thrown a little more pressure at Luck, things might have been different.

Enter Oregon

Oregon's defense took over last year against Stanford.

Oregon's defense is peaking right now. Holding an improved Washington team to 17 points in Seattle, their defensive line punished RB Chris Polk and forced QB Keith Price into throwing errors when they weren't sacking him six times.

Another key stat for the Duck defense?  ZERO. That is the number of points Oregon allowed Andrew Luck and company to score in the second half last year. ESPN's story, "Oregon Not Awed by Andrew Luck" pits Nick Allioti directly against Luck. This story suggests that either Oregon will bring enough pressure to mess up Luck, or he truly is the best QB since Elway and Stanford is the Pac-12 champ.

Scout Inc. noted the same thing when they wrote:
The amount of pressure Oregon is able to apply to Luck will be crucial to the outcome of this game. The Ducks have notched 29 sacks on the year, with DEs Dion Jordan and Terrell Turner flashing first-step quickness and athleticism off the edge, and defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti being creative and aggressive bringing pressures from various launch points on the second and third levels. Stanford LT Jonathan Martin and RG David DeCastro are first-round prospects, but the offensive line as a whole has allowed some leakage in protection and has issues communicating against the blitz. Stanford has given up only four sacks on the season, but much of that is thanks to Luck's elite pocket presence and mobility. Oregon must apply pressure but must do so under control and maintain gap integrity because Luck has the ability to extend plays and to make accurate throws downfield -- or use his feet to pick up big chunks of yardage.


When Oregon has the ball, it'll be all about the Ducks' specialty: Making the defense believe one thing and then doing another. Again from Scout Inc.:
Discipline and awareness also will be key for the Cardinal's last line of defense. The fast-paced offense of Oregon coach Chip Kelly will provide little time for the Stanford defense to align and make any pre-snap calls or adjustments. The secondary can ill afford to become flustered and overzealous filling in run support, or try to get an early break on quick-hitting perimeter passes. The Ducks do a great job of frustrating defenses, creating confusion and then capitalizing on play-action downfield. Thomas is much-improved as a thrower this season, and TE David Paulson and WR Lavasier Tuinei have the size and long strides to exploit vertical seams. Stopping the Ducks' ground attack is a big challenge on its own, and giving up big plays in the passing game, as well, would mean a very long day for the Stanford defense.

Stanford will need all the Luck it can get
to keep up with Oregon's running backs.

I will be excited to see what Chip Kelly has cooked up for the offense. He mostly used LaMichael James last week. Nothing wrong with that. But throw in Kenjon Barner and line up DeAnthony Thomas in the backfield OR as a receiver, that creates the potential for mistakes Stanford is worried about.

And if Stanford starts off by successfully staying on top of it, good for them. Now get ready for the second half.

I like Oregon's chances. I don't think Stanford belongs in the BCS top five and Oregon is just the team to show them. I'll say this, though. Although this isn't the official Pac-12 Championship, everyone knows it's the "Nudge Nudge, Wink Wink Pac-12 Championship". The Championship of football, I mean, not of nudging and winking. I only meant nudge nudge wink wink because these are the two best teams. You see, it's a metaphore. We know something that isn't official. Not that it's OFFICIALLY the "Nudge Nudge Wink Wink . . . . " (sigh)

Anyway, Ducks are gonna win.

Oregon at Stanford game time 5pm Pacific on ABC.