In case you've been in a Chilean mine for the past 48 hours, Oregon reached the #1 ranking in the human polls -- AP, USA Today, and Harris -- after Wisconsin beat previously #1 Ohio State on Saturday. (See latest R-G article.)
The BCS however, plugged Oregon in at #2 behind Oklahoma because the computers ranked the Ducks in 8th place!
What's the problem? Both teams are 6-0. But if we dissect those records, we see the situation.
Of Oklahoma's six wins, four are impressive over Florida State (currently 6-1), Air Force (5-2) Texas (4-2) and Cincinnati (3-3).
Oregon's top four wins feature Stanford, a solid trophy at (5-1), then ASU, mediocre at (3-3), Tennessee is looking worse every week (2-4). And for a fourth quality win, take your pick from Washington State, New Mexico, or the PSU that is NOT Penn State.
Computers are brainless, but they can crunch numbers better than humans can. And Oregon's first half of their schedule simply wasn't as tough as Oklahoma's. In fact looking back, the Ducks schedule to this point looks almost dangerously (Dare I say it.) Boise State-ish.
Humans on the other hand are far better nuanced to see style, understand trends, interpret gut feelings, analyze intangibles, and such. And they are the ones who are saying that despite what the numbers say, Oregon is just playing better football than anyone else right now, including Oklahoma.
More to the point, Oklahoma (Yes, they're still mad about that whole replay thing in Eugene.) had to struggle to get those wins. They beat Utah State by a touchdown, beat Air Force by three, and Cincinnati by only two. Meanwhile the Ducks are clobbering teams to the point where they were disappointed to have beaten Washington State by only 20.
So why do humans like Oregon better? Let me recall back to my days on a farm in Eastern Oregon to explain this to Sooner fans. Say you've got two farmers faced with the task of keeping wolves away from their respective barnyard areas; and they each have their own way to use electricity to do it.
One farmer strings up an electric fence. Simple, efficient, it gets the job done. Not one single wolf has gotten past it.
The other farmer is a little more creative and inventive. He can throw lightning bolts. And anytime a wolf gets too close to the border, he summons a fiery bolt from the heavens down to BBQ the wolf, every other critter within 10 yards of it, and sets the surrounding grass on fire.
Now perhaps the computer is programmed to also look at the quality of wolves. And it sees that Farmer #1 has bigger and stronger wolves, and he's prevented every one from intruding so far. And Farmer #2, while he has met that same zero intrusion objective, has faced smaller, skinnier wolves. The computer credits Farmer #1 on perfectly sensible criteria. But if you want to see a good show, all eyes are on the lightning.
Oklahoma, humans do not see you playing in the championship game because . . . . well, they just don't want to see you playing in the championship game. --not when there's a hot sizzling lightning storm raging out west.
Oregon calls their yellow color "Lightning" for a reason. |
This is only the first BCS poll. There is a lot of football still to play. Who knows where any of these teams will be in six weeks.
But right now, the message is clear. Human beings, the ones who watch and enjoy good football games, would love to see Oregon and Boise State light it up.
--KB
2 comments:
I am all for Oregon - always will be, but after I saw Auburn this weekend, I think they will rise in the polls. Cam Newton is the real deal. I hope when it becomes bowl time, we won't have to face another 6'6" quarterback who can run as well as he throws.
Auburn's offense seems to do only slightly better than their defense up to now. Except for last game, they are winning by close margins. This Saturday, their game against LSU and Oklahoma's game at undefeated Missouri will clear the picture quite a bit.
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